New technology: a revolution for knowledge work

In the coming decade, artificial intelligence, the metaverse, and quantum computers will shape our way of life and work. What evolutions can we expect? Entrepreneur and expert in new technology, Maarten Verschuere, looks ahead.

Which technologies will have a direct impact on our jobs in the next ten years?

Artificial intelligence is already changing the way we work and live today. In the somewhat more distant future, the metaverse will also shape our lives.

Then there are the 'superconductors' - superconducting materials that allow energy to be transmitted much more efficiently. These accelerate our electronics. When quantum computers break through, 'waiting for the computer' will disappear forever. Instant processing will become the norm.

Do you already see an impact in education?

The way we capture and process information is changing forever, so is student life. ChatGPT, launched last year, is already gaining ground.

You can compare it to students who had or didn't have the internet. In the 90s, we spent a lot of time in the library; in the 2000s, you searched everything online. We're seeing such an acceleration again now. Everyone gets a personal AI assistant. Writing a paper or making a presentation without generative AI will become a funny idea of the past.

Does AI become more reliable?

Fact-checking remains important. A Large Language Model (LLM) like ChatGPT is actually an AI brain that excels in text processing - summarizing content, describing something, or answering questions. That brain is trained based on a dataset.

ChatGPT is a closed model, meaning you can't feed it with your own data. That program is trained based on all the texts available on the internet, and interprets them accordingly. It's not reliable without verification, but it's a very valuable assistant.

But there are already hundreds of 'open' Large Language Models, which you can train with your own data. Meta is currently leading the development of such models with LLAMA. With these, you have control over reliability.

An example is the rise of legal AI, such as legal firms developing chatbots to work with their business archives.

Indeed. Allen&Overy, for example, has embedded their knowledge database into their own legal LLM. The result is a legal expert chatbot, which they named Harvey. For now, Harvey is only used internally. So it is certainly (not yet) the case that everyone can use it. But this saves employees the painstaking task of keeping track and reading up. They can quickly retrieve articles of incorporation, contracts, and other templates and documents.

McKinsey, the world's largest consultancy firm, has also trained its own AI chatbot with their complete archive, named LILLI. All employees can draw from it to write proposals or analyses; they only need to fact-check and fine-tune. This reduces two months of work to two weeks, and ultimately, AI will change the job of all knowledge workers.

This acceleration also brings challenges. How much information and work can and should we ultimately handle?

The idea is not to work like during the lockdown, where we do back-to-back calls and are available at every moment. We have to be smart about that efficiency.

That's why we may need to rethink our labor model. The time we save doesn't necessarily have to go only towards extra production. The 40-hour workweek was developed for the industry in the 1920s by Henry Ford. That model no longer meets today's needs; with that timeframe, we mainly encounter burnout.

If we work with a model based on the quality of output rather than hours worked, we can invest the freed-up energy partly in employee experience, making the workplace enjoyable. With inspirational sessions, joint activities, space for connection, and informal meetings.

This way, we are aware of each other's work and feel more connected.

You believe that the arrival of these technologies will lead to a new industrial revolution. Can you explain that?

The first revolution was the development of the steam engine, which allowed, for example, a carpenter not to have to saw his wood himself, but a machine could do it. Then came the assembly line and Taylorism, with which cars were built. This was followed by robotics, which allowed factories to work with robots, and also the rise of smart factories based on data. With each revolution, the need for manual labor decreased significantly.

For knowledge workers, we saw the arrival of computers and the internet, but that didn't change the core of the jobs. So the first industrial revolution for knowledge workers is now happening. AI and super-fast computers will greatly reduce knowledge work and reduce many departments to just a few employees.

Is the fear of job loss then justified? Will there be fewer jobs overall?

I don't think so. Humans are an adaptive species. A baby born 3000 years ago is physically and mentally the same as today. But due to changes in the environment and upbringing, that baby evolves into someone who thrives in a corporate context and no longer chases an elephant with a spear. So it's not the case that, metaphorically speaking, if you take away the spear, humans do nothing and are lost. We will simply invest our time differently, organize ourselves differently.

The gap becomes deeper, particularly between those who do and do not have access to technology. Whether or not you have a computer will become even more essential.

Which jobs become more important with the arrival of new technology?

That is, of course, speculation, but new jobs always arise where there are new pain points. For systems like ChatGPT, for example, fact-checkers will be needed. In these times of fake news, someone will have to provide our information with a 'verified label'.

For IT, English becomes the largest programming language, and we no longer need to be able to write code. This is where creative developers come in, who excel in concept design. Creative, problem-solving thinkers become more important than programmers and software developers.

For building tailor-made LLMs, there will be a need for logical data organization. People who create classification systems for the input and output of our AI tools. A content manager of sorts, but from a conceptual perspective.

Data analysis changes because you can 'consult' with your data. Financial statements, annual reports, customer analyses... you can query everything 'live'. The data analyst needs to do less research, but mainly be able to ask smart questions.

Are companies prepared for this?

These tools are becoming increasingly accessible. The next Windows update will be an AI lightning bolt that finishes your task for you, whether it's a PowerPoint or an email. Every company will soon use AI because all software tools will have an AI layer. Every software tool becomes an AI tool. I also see a new job there, an AI guru who quickly responds to AI queries in the workplace.

The threshold is so low that companies automatically get it and quickly discover the added value.